So the Oscars are tonight, and as always, every minor and insignificant awards ceremony has been touted as 'an indicator of the Oscar result'. Well all these indicators are entirely unnecessary, as I will explain exactly who is going to get the Oscars and why*. Naturally I am the obvious person to choose, being free from such outside influences as cinematic bribery or actually having watched most of the films.

*May be incorrect or facetious.

Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin. Mark Wahlberg should be the man to get this for his wonderful role in the Departed (my favourite film this year and one that I won't stop mentioning). Alex Baldwin has also had a good set of recent supporting roles, but didn't quite get the nomination. This will go to Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine since I really think Eddie Murphy has effectively ruined his near certainty of getting an Oscar by releasing the catastrophe of Norbit onto the screens. If he'd waited a few more weeks to bring it out, I really think he'd have gotten away with it. As things are, I don't see it happening (although he is still the bookies' favourite).

Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson. This is a fight between an American Idol reject and the tiny girl from Little Miss Sunshine. Even though Hudson has the most experience at losing popularity contests, she deserves credit for apparently (for obvious reasons I haven't watched Dreamgirls) completely upstaging Beyonce Knowles in what was supposed to be a vehicle for her.

Best Leading Actor - Peter O'Toole. I haven't seen his film (in fact, I've only seen one in this category) and Forest Whitaker is the heavy favourite for pretending to be Idi Amin. But 8 rejections for Best Actor would be taking the piss, especially since it'll probably be his last. If I were to bet, it'd probably be for Whitaker, but O'Toole is definitely my outside shot.

Best Leading Actress - Helen Mirren. Much as I'd like to see Penélope Cruz win this, the odds are better for Judi Dench getting into a fist fight than anyone other than Mirren winning Best Actress.

Best Animated Film - Cars. The other two seem to be falling into the "come up with enough famous voices and we don't really need an original script" problem plaguing most of the animated films lately. It's quite telling that there's been more CGI films this year than all the other years put together, and yet nobody could come up with more than 3 worth even nominating. Either way, I'm expecting Shrek 3 to blow away the competition next year.

Best Foreign Language Film - El Laberinto del Fauno (Pan's Labyrinth). I haven't seen any of these. I can't pronounce most of them (except the wonderfully foreign sounding Canadian film 'Water'). This is a pick based entirely on which film looks most interesting.

Best Documentary - Deliver Us From Evil. Even though Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth' seems the obvious, it's hard to argue against a film that has gotten completely unanimous approval.

Best Director - Martin Scorsese. Once again, Departed, best film of the year. If you haven't already seen it then go watch it. Repeatedly. By any means necessary. Even if he had made the long awaited sequel to 'man getting hit by football', Scorsese would have won, just because he is heavily owed it by now.

Best Film - Take a wild guess. I'm actually torn between which of the Departed and the second favourite Little Miss Sunshine seems least like traditional Academy fare. Third favourite Babel however, seems right up their alley, so I wouldn't rule that out under any circumstances. The odds favour the Departed (me too, as if you didn't already know that). The critics favour Little Miss Sunshine. And history favours Babel. I've been picking a lot of underdogs so far, so I'll keep the trend going and pick Sunshine for the win, against my better urges.

Most Likely To Cry During An Acceptance Speech - I can't choose between Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy.

Most Likely To Get Into A Fight - If Martin Scorsese wins, Colin Farrell (If he's there, I'm not really sure), If Martin Scorsese loses, then Martin Scorsese.

Apologies for posting this so late, it's been a busy day and this took longer than I thought it would. Coverage starts in about 10 minutes and continues on until 5:30. Luckily, I have an essay to write so I'll be boring people with a play by play analysis of this most pretentious of awards ceremonies.